Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146299 | 146135 | 146000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28370 | 30420 | 31720 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 812 | 889 | 1064 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 5.9 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.2 | -1.6 | -3.9 | -2.2 | -1.9 | -1.6 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.7 | 14.4 | 16.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | -9284 | -8636 | 20339 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 15.2 | 13.8 | 11.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 04/2026
Vasily Astrov, Ioannis Gutzianas, Marko Hočevar, Mario Holzner, Branimir Jovanović, Sabina Lange and Bernd Christoph Ströhm
wiiw Monthly Report No. 04, April 2026
33 pages including 6 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The windfall from high energy prices in the wake of the war in the Middle East has provided timely relief for the ailing government budget. It is also expected to have a moderately positive effect on economic growth, which turned negative at the beginning of 2026. In the baseline scenario, real GDP is forecast to grow by 0.9% this year, followed by an acceleration in 2027-2028 on the back of expected monetary policy easing. If global energy prices stay elevated for a long time or rise further, GDP growth will be higher, although inflation will speed up as well.