Bosnia and Herzegovina

Following modest growth in 2025, further recovery is expected to be delayed due to the new war in the Middle East. Household consumption is still expected to grow, supported by rising wages, including a significant minimum wage increase in January. However, external imbalances are projected to persist, despite continued support from remittances and tourism. Inflation is expected to increase owing to energy price developments, which pose a major risk of an uptick in inflation. Overall, the outlook is constrained by weak external demand, structural rigidities and ongoing political uncertainty that continues to weigh on investment and reform momentum.

				FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028
Population, 1000 persons	3422	3412	3320	.	.	.
GDP, real change in %	2.0	3.2	2.1	2.3	2.8	3.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)	13590	14630	15780	.	.	.
Gross industrial production, real change in %	-3.9	-4.0	-1.8	.	.	.
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average	13.2	12.6	12.2	12.1	12.0	11.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR	995	1093	1246	.	.	.
Consumer prices, % p.a.	6.1	1.7	4.0	3.4	2.7	2.1
Fiscal balance in % of GDP	-1.2	-1.8	-2.0	-1.3	-1.0	-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP	26.4	26.1	27.0	.	.	.
Current account in % of GDP	-2.1	-3.5	-3.2	-3.2	-3.1	-3.8
FDI inflow, EUR m	1044	926	638	.	.	.
Gross external debt in % of GDP	47.1	47.3	46.7	.	.	.

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche