Estonia

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After three years of recession and near-stagnation, the Estonian economy grew by 0.6% in 2025. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.3% in 2026, supported by a strongly expansionary fiscal stance, improving external demand and a rebound in household spending; that will be followed by 2.8% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028. Private consumption is set to become the main engine of growth, underpinned by the recently adopted income tax reform and lower inflation. However, an expanding fiscal deficit and persistent competitiveness challenges are clouding the medium-term outlook.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons137013721355...
GDP, real change in %-2.7-0.10.62.32.82.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)306103156032940...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-9.7-2.51.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.47.67.57.16.96.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR183219812092...
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.13.74.84.03.22.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.7-1.2-2.3-4.5-4.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP20.223.523.5...
Current account in % of GDP-1.2-1.2-0.2-1.4-0.90.1
FDI inflow, EUR m4823-3205-822...
Gross external debt in % of GDP88.897.8100.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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