Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 145864 | 146714 | 146326 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.9 | -1.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22180 | 23220 | 24550 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.3 | 0.7 | 3.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 656 | 901 | 809 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.7 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.8 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 15.4 | 14.7 | 14.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 6.8 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 34166 | -37607 | -10333 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 27.7 | 16.7 | 15.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
Last year, GDP expanded by 3.6%, thanks largely to the boom in military production, which has had positive effects – both direct and indirect – for most of the rest of the economy. With inflation running in excess of 7% and the unemployment rate plunging to below 3%, the economy has clearly been overheating. However, the recent stabilisation of inflation suggests that ‘peak overheating’ has already been reached. Growth is projected to slip below 3% in 2024 and beyond, while inflation will gradually return to closer to the 4% target.